Market statistics
- Total volume
- $377K
- 24h volume
- $369K
- Liquidity
- $535K
- Open interest
- $185K
Available prediction outcomes (87)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket final match between LGD Gaming and Natus Vincere in the Esports World Cup Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 2 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against LGD Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the sche
Wikipedia Context
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Dota GozenDota Gozen , also known as Tsuchida Gozen, was a Japanese noblewoman and the mother of Oda Nobunaga, a major daimyō and politician of the Sengoku period regarded as the first "Great Unifier" of Japan.
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Multiplayer online battle arena
Multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) is a subgenre of strategy video games in which two teams of players compete on a structured battlefield, each controlling a single character with distinctive abilities that grow stronger as the match progresses. The objective is to destroy the enemy team's main structure while defending one's own. In some MOBA games, th
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/betboom_dota_ru2. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like PolyGram route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
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