England vs. Croatia - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

England and Croatia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 4:00 PM ET. The market resolves YES only if the match ends with a specific scoreline within the 90 minutes plus stoppage time; any other result triggers resolution to "Any Other Score." The 9% implied probability reflects the difficulty of predicting an exact score in international football, where outcomes cluster heavily around narrow margins rather than repeating patterns.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in major tournaments rarely exceed single-digit probabilities for any individual result. In the 2022 World Cup group stage, no single scoreline accounted for more than 8% of outcomes across comparable fixtures, with most matches producing either 1–0, 1–1, or 2–1 results. England and Croatia's previous meeting in the 2018 World Cup semi-final ended 2–1 after extra time; their group-stage encounter in 2020 European Championships finished 1–0 to England. These historical fixtures suggest low-scoring outcomes remain most probable, though the specific scoreline remains inherently uncertain.

Traders should monitor team news and squad announcements in the weeks preceding the match, particularly injury updates affecting key players on either side. England's attacking depth and Croatia's defensive organisation will shape pre-match expectations, though form leading into the tournament will prove more predictive than historical head-to-head records. Weather conditions at the venue and fixture scheduling—whether either team enters the match with fixture congestion—may influence tactical approaches and goal-scoring likelihood. No single catalyst dramatically shifts exact-score probabilities; instead, the 9% baseline reflects the mathematical reality that distributing probability across dozens of possible outcomes leaves each individual result with minimal support.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for England vs. Croatia - Exact Score plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.