US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement on 14 June 2026, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. The market tests whether any portion of the agreement text becomes publicly available by 1 July 2026. The 90% implied probability reflects strong historical precedent: major bilateral agreements involving the US typically enter the public domain within weeks of signing, either through official State Department releases, congressional notification requirements, or media leaks. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) text was published in full within days of finalisation. Even contentious agreements—such as Trump-era trade deals—saw their substantive terms disclosed to Congress and the press rapidly. The only realistic scenario for non-disclosure would involve an unprecedented decision to classify the entire agreement or a breakdown in the signing process itself.

The critical catalyst is congressional notification. US law requires the State Department to submit significant international agreements to Congress, typically triggering public disclosure within 30 days. Reuters reported on 15 June that congressional committees had already requested briefings on the agreement's terms. A second pathway involves media access: journalists covering the 19 June signing ceremony will likely obtain copies or detailed summaries from officials, diplomats, or leaked sources. The Iranian government has also signalled willingness to discuss terms publicly, reducing the likelihood of mutual secrecy. Traders should monitor State Department announcements and congressional committee statements between 19 and 30 June; any official submission or public statement confirming text release would effectively settle the market affirmatively.

Methodology

This page tracks US-Iran deal text released by 2026? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.