Highest temperature in London on June 2?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 2 June 2026, measured in Celsius and settled against historical data from Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday on that date, meaning traders are wagering on a specific meteorological outcome roughly eighteen months forward.

London's June temperatures typically range between 15°C and 23°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching the mid-to-high 20s. The Met Office's thirty-year climate averages show mean maximum temperatures of around 21°C for early June in central London, though the airport station—situated on the Thames estuary—can register slightly different readings than central locations due to proximity to water and urban heat-island effects. Extreme June heat above 28°C occurs infrequently; the last time London exceeded 30°C in June was 2015. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently view the market's resolution ranges as unlikely to be reached, or the market itself lacks sufficient liquidity and attention to establish meaningful pricing.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasting updates as June 2026 approaches, particularly from the Met Office's long-range outlooks issued in spring. The UK Climate Projections indicate gradual warming trends, though single-day temperature forecasts remain unreliable beyond two weeks. No scheduled weather events or atmospheric phenomena are currently known to influence June 2026 conditions. The primary catalyst will be standard meteorological data release on 2 June itself, when actual temperatures become observable and the market settles against Weather Underground's recorded figures.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in London on June 2? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.