Highest temperature in Seoul on June 2?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 2 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, with the market resolving to whichever temperature range contains the day's high. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must assess conditions before the full diurnal cycle completes. Wunderground's historical database will serve as the authoritative source, with temperature recorded in Celsius.

Early June in Seoul typically sits within a warm, humid transition period between spring and the onset of the monsoon season. Historical data from Incheon shows average highs around 24–26°C for this period, though variability is substantial. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity; comparable weather markets often show clustering around modal outcomes rather than uniform distribution across all possible ranges.

The primary catalyst affecting this market's resolution is the East Asian weather pattern in late May and early June 2026. High-pressure systems moving across the Korean peninsula can drive temperatures substantially above seasonal norms, whilst approaching frontal systems or early monsoon moisture can suppress them. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and longer-range models from mid-May onwards, as these typically offer the most reliable guidance for early June conditions at Incheon. Any unusual atmospheric circulation patterns—such as early tropical cyclone activity or anomalous ridge positioning—could shift outcomes materially from historical averages.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on June 2? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.