Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil passes, has experienced significant traffic disruption since mid-2024 following escalations in the Red Sea and broader regional tensions. The market tests whether daily transit calls—measured as a seven-day moving average by IMF Portwatch—will recover to 60 or above by year-end 2026. This threshold represents a return to pre-disruption baseline levels; transit calls averaged 55–65 daily before the recent volatility spiked insurance costs and prompted shipping reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope.

Historical precedent suggests regional maritime disruptions typically resolve within 18–24 months once de-escalation begins. The 2011–2012 Iran sanctions period saw Hormuz traffic decline sharply but normalise within two years once shipping adapted and political pressure eased. The current 77 per cent crowd probability reflects confidence in either a negotiated settlement or a shift in regional military posture by late 2026. Traders are implicitly betting on one of two catalysts: either a formal diplomatic agreement reducing tensions (similar to the 2015 JCPOA framework, though now fractured), or a unilateral decision by regional actors to de-escalate without formal accord.

Immediate catalysts include any ceasefire announcements in Yemen or broader Israel-Iran tensions, which would directly reduce perceived risk to shipping. The US presidential transition in January 2025 and subsequent foreign policy signals will shape expectations around sanctions enforcement and regional engagement. Lloyd's List and Hellenic Shipping News have tracked weekly transit data; any sustained improvement in IMF Portwatch readings above 55 for two consecutive weeks would likely shift market sentiment materially upward.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

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