2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 U.S. Open is currently underway at Shinnecock Hills, with the cut for the weekend tournament decided after the second round on Friday. The market’s 0% implied probability suggests the listed player has either already been eliminated or is not competing, as only the top 60 players and ties advance to the final two rounds [4][6].

Historically, similar cut-line markets at Shinnecock have resolved to “No” when players miss the top 60 threshold, especially in years where the projected cut sits at four-over par, as DataGolf estimates a 62% likelihood for this score in 2026 [1]. In 2026, the cut line was confirmed at four-over, with 72 players advancing and 84 eliminated, reinforcing how tight the margin is for making the weekend [2].

Traders should monitor official USGA announcements regarding player eligibility and any late withdrawals, as the tournament runs through 23:59 UTC on 21 June 2026 [4]. With high-profile misses including Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm already confirmed on cut day, the market leans on the catalyst of final eligibility confirmations rather than polling or campaign disclosures [8]. The USGA’s communications team remains the primary source for real-time updates on player status [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for 2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.