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Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group D

"Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group D" — live political-market odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

Map 2 Winner 100% O/U 2.5 Games 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 100% Volume: $166K Liquidity: $562K Closes: 13 Jul 2026
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Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 2 Winner100%
O/U 2.5 Games100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-9.5) vs MOUZ NXT (+9.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.599%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs MOUZ NXT (+3.5)90%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs MOUZ NXT (+6.5)90%
Match Winner75%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs MOUZ NXT (+3.5)50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 36.548%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.530%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.510%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs MOUZ NXT (+3.5)10%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.510%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.510%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-12.5) vs MOUZ NXT (+12.5)10%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.510%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs MOUZ NXT (+6.5)5%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.51%
Map 1 Winner0%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs MOUZ NXT (+1.5)0%
Map Handicap: MOUZ.N (-1.5) vs SPARTA (+1.5)0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group D. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Decider match between SPARTA and MOUZ NXT in the ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group D, initially scheduled for July 13 at 9:00AM ET. This market will r…

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group D plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
How fast do political markets react to news?
High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
Which political events have the biggest volume?
US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
Sarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets WriterandJames WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market Analyst

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