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Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group B

How the prediction markets are pricing "Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group B" right now — live Polymarket order book quote, plus platform comparison.

Map 2 Winner 100% O/U 2.5 Games 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 100% Volume: $142K Liquidity: $710K Closes: 13 Jul 2026
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Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group B

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 2 Winner100%
O/U 2.5 Games100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.590%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: The Last Resort (-3.5) vs QUAZAR (+3.5)90%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: The Last Resort (-6.5) vs QUAZAR (+6.5)90%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: QUAZAR (-3.5) vs The Last Resort (+3.5)90%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: QUAZAR (-6.5) vs The Last Resort (+6.5)90%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.510%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.510%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.510%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: QUAZAR (-3.5) vs The Last Resort (+3.5)10%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: QUAZAR (-12.5) vs The Last Resort (+12.5)10%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: QUAZAR (-9.5) vs The Last Resort (+9.5)10%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: QUAZAR (-3.5) vs The Last Resort (+3.5)10%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: The Last Resort (-9.5) vs QUAZAR (+9.5)10%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.510%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.510%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: QUAZAR (-9.5) vs The Last Resort (+9.5)10%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: The Last Resort (-3.5) vs QUAZAR (+3.5)2%
Map 1 Winner0%
Match Winner0%
Map Handicap: QUA (-1.5) vs The Last Resort (+1.5)0%
Map Handicap: TLR (-1.5) vs QUAZAR (+1.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: The Last Resort (-3.5) vs QUAZAR (+3.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: QUAZAR (-6.5) vs The Last Resort (+6.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group B. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Decider match between The Last Resort and QUAZAR in the ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group B, initially scheduled for July 13 at 9:00AM ET. This market…

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group B plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
How fast do political markets react to news?
High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
Which political events have the biggest volume?
US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
Sarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets WriterandJames WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market Analyst

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