Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 79% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 62% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 59% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Reece James: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ assists | 47% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 44% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 44% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 42% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 40% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 35% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 33% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 32% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 32% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 26% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Reece James: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 19% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Reece James: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Reece James: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 9% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 8% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 7% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Nicolás Paz: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, england vs. argentina - player props stands at 93% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and Argentina, scheduled for July 15 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page tracks England vs. Argentina - Player Props across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
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