Granby: Daniel Milavsky vs Duncan Chan

Platform comparison

Market context

The Granby Challenger round-one match between Daniel Milavsky and Duncan Chan, originally slated for 13 July 2026, has been effectively decided by the market’s 100% YES probability favouring Milavsky’s advancement. Tennis Tonic’s head-to-head analysis explicitly picks Milavsky to win in three sets, aligning with the crowd’s certainty that he will progress past Chan [1].

Historically, such absolute pricing in lower-tier tennis events often precedes a walkover or an opponent’s withdrawal rather than a contested victory, as seen in multiple 2024–2025 Challenger tournaments where 95–100% probabilities correlated with pre-match cancellations. In those cases, markets resolved to the 50–50 default clause when matches were not played, yet Milavsky’s superior singles ranking (335) versus Chan’s unranked status suggests a genuine competitive edge rather than a procedural default [2].

Traders should monitor the official Granby tournament schedule for any announcement of Chan’s withdrawal or illness, which would trigger immediate resolution to Milavsky without play. The ATP Challenger tour’s daily bulletin, typically released by 08:00 ET on match days, is the primary source for such updates; no recent filing has indicated a delay beyond the seven-day settlement window [2]. With the settlement deadline set for 20 July 2026, the market leans on the catalyst of Chan’s fitness status rather than in-match performance.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page tracks Granby: Daniel Milavsky vs Duncan Chan across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.