How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Dota 2: BALU vs Invision (BO3) - European Pro…

Name: Dota 2: BALU vs Invision (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
Start: 2026-07-03T04:13:22.677Z
End: 2026-07-03T19:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	100%	0%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Live odds →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	100%	0%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Live odds →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Live odds →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Live odds →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Game 2 Winner	100%
O/U 2.5 Games	100%
Ends in Daytime	100%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	100%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	90%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
Any Player Rampage	50%
Ends in Daytime	10%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	10%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	10%
Any Player Ultra Kill	10%
Any Player Rampage	10%
Ends in Daytime	10%
Game 1 Winner	0%
Match Winner	0%
Game Handicap: BALU (-1.5) vs Invision (+1.5)	0%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	0%
Any Player Ultra Kill	0%
Any Player Rampage	0%
Game Handicap: Invision (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5)	0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to dota 2: balu vs invision (bo3) - european pro league group b. This market refers to the Dota 2 match between BALU and Invision in the European Pro League Group B, initially scheduled for July 3 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "BALU" if BALU win the ma…

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Dota 2: BALU vs Invision (BO3) - European Pro League Group B plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?: Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?: Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
How fast do political markets react to news?: High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Sarah MitchellPolitical Markets Writerand

James WilliamsPrediction Market Analyst

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Dota 2: BALU vs Invision (BO3) - European Pro League Group B

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Dota 2: BALU vs Invision (BO3) - European Pro League… on Trump Prediction

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