Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trump Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Trump Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Norway (-1.5) | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Sweden (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Norway (-2.5) | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Sweden (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Market context
A FIFA International Friendly between Norway and the Swedish national football teams is scheduled for 1 June 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. The market asks whether additional betting or trading markets will be created for this fixture beyond those already available. The 90% crowd probability suggests traders expect supplementary markets—likely including player-performance props, corner counts, card totals, or regional-specific wagering options—to launch ahead of or during the match window.
Historical precedent from major Scandinavian football fixtures shows that UEFA-sanctioned friendlies between established Nordic nations typically attract expanded market coverage when broadcast reach is confirmed across multiple territories. The Norway–Sweden pairing carries established viewership in both home markets and across Nordic streaming platforms. Previous June international windows have seen secondary markets proliferate once fixture confirmation reaches 48–72 hours before kick-off, particularly when both nations field competitive squads. The 90% reading reflects confidence in standard market-expansion patterns rather than exceptional demand signals.
The settlement hinges on whether the organising bookmaker or affiliated exchange platforms publish additional markets by the 17:00 UTC deadline on 1 June. Traders should monitor fixture confirmation from the Norwegian Football Federation and Swedish Football Association in late May, as delayed squad announcements or broadcast-rights complications could constrain market creation. Recent UEFA International Match Calendar updates confirm the friendly's status; any last-minute postponement or venue change would materially reduce the likelihood of supplementary markets launching on schedule.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $606K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Norway vs. Sweden - More Markets plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?
- Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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