Türkiye vs. North Macedonia

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Türkiye will face North Macedonia in a FIFA International Friendly on Monday, 1 June 2026, with kickoff scheduled for the evening in what appears to be a fixture arranged during the standard international match window. The current market probability of 100% YES reflects near-certainty that this match will occur as scheduled, suggesting traders view cancellation or postponement as negligible risks.

Historical precedent for international friendlies between these nations and comparable fixtures in the Balkan region shows that scheduled matches between UEFA-affiliated sides rarely fail to materialise unless extraordinary circumstances—severe weather, security incidents, or diplomatic crises—intervene. Türkiye and North Macedonia have contested multiple friendly encounters without incident, and neither nation has faced recent fixture cancellations that would signal systemic scheduling fragility. The 2026 calendar sits far enough in advance that squad availability and logistical planning typically proceed without disruption.

Traders monitoring this market should track any announcements from the Turkish Football Federation or North Macedonian Football Association regarding venue changes, squad withdrawals due to injury clusters, or diplomatic developments that might trigger cancellation. UEFA fixture calendars and official federation statements remain the primary information sources; as of late 2024, no public reports suggest complications with this friendly's status. The settlement window closes on 1 June at 17:30 UTC, meaning the match outcome becomes irrelevant—only whether the fixture takes place matters for this market's resolution.

Methodology

This page tracks Türkiye vs. North Macedonia across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.