Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 74% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 74% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 59% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 59% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ shots | 58% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 54% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Yassine Bounou: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Chadi Riad: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Issa Diop: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noussair Mazraoui: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Yassine Bounou: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Yassine Bounou: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Yassine Bounou: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 46% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Chadi Riad: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 43% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 32% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Issa Diop: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Noussair Mazraoui: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Chadi Riad: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 16% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Issa Diop: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Jules Koundé: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Noussair Mazraoui: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Gessime Yassine: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Chemsdine Talbi: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Gessime Yassine: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ shots | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 85% probability to france vs. morocco - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Morocco, scheduled for July 9 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for France vs. Morocco - Player Props plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Which political events have the biggest volume?
- US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
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