Iraq vs. Norway - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iraq and Norway will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 16 June at 6:00 PM ET. This market resolves YES only if the match ends with an exact scoreline matching one of the explicitly listed outcomes; any other result triggers "Any Other Score." The 4% implied probability reflects the specificity required—predicting not merely a winner but the precise final tally across 90 minutes of regulation play.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in football typically concentrate probability mass on low-scoring outcomes. Matches ending 1–0, 1–1, or 2–1 account for roughly 40–50% of all World Cup group-stage games, whilst any single exact scoreline rarely exceeds 8–10% probability. Iraq and Norway's competitive profile matters here: Iraq has qualified for only two World Cups (1986, 2018) and has never progressed from the group stage, whilst Norway has failed to qualify for the last two tournaments. Both teams typically operate with defensive structures that suppress goal-scoring, though Norway's European pedigree suggests marginally higher attacking capacity.

The catalyst traders should monitor is team selection and injury announcements, expected in May 2026 ahead of the tournament. Norway's domestic league (Eliteserien) concludes in November, providing a long preparation window, whilst Iraq's domestic season runs through May. Recent form in qualifying rounds and any late squad changes will influence expected goal-scoring patterns. The FIFA World Cup draw confirmed both teams' group assignments in December 2023, so the fixture itself carries no uncertainty—only the precise outcome remains contested.

Methodology

This page tracks Iraq vs. Norway - Exact Score across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.