New York Yankees vs. Athletics

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Yankees face the Oakland Athletics on 31 May at 4:05PM ET in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture. The market currently prices a Yankees victory at 62%, reflecting their standing as the favoured side in this matchup.

The Yankees' historical record against the Athletics provides context for the current probability. New York has maintained a competitive advantage in head-to-head play over recent seasons, though Oakland has demonstrated capacity to compete in individual games regardless of broader seasonal trajectory. The 62% implied probability sits within the typical range for a matchup between a stronger-positioned team and a weaker one in mid-season play, neither extreme nor suggesting overwhelming confidence in either outcome. Comparable games between teams of similar relative strength typically settle between 55% and 70% for the favoured side, depending on pitching matchups and recent form.

Traders should monitor roster availability and starting pitcher assignments in the days preceding the fixture. Injury reports released by both organisations typically emerge 24 to 48 hours before game time and can materially shift market expectations. Weather conditions at Oakland Coliseum may also influence play, particularly wind patterns affecting fly-ball trajectories. Recent performance trends—the Yankees' record in their preceding five games and the Athletics' current winning or losing streak—often trigger modest probability adjustments as game day approaches. The settlement window extends to 7 June 2026 at 20:05 UTC to accommodate potential postponements.

Methodology

This page tracks New York Yankees vs. Athletics across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.