UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Allan Nascimento’s flyweight bout with Mitch Raposo is scheduled for UFC Fight Night on the Apex card in Las Vegas, and the market is now effectively a live result bet on the official UFC verdict. UFC.com still lists Raposo in pre-fight coverage for the June 20 booking, while UFC Stats gives the matchup page and tale-of-the-tape for the pairing, confirming the fight was on the slate for tonight’s prelims.[1][9]

The clearest historical frame is that this market’s 0% YES crowd price is more about *absence of confirmed completion* than about a substantive view on the outcome. This matchup was already shifted once after Raposo’s illness, with UFC and Sportsnet both reporting the bout was moved from the Winnipeg card to June 20 at the Apex; that kind of scheduling disruption is exactly the sort of dependency that can keep prediction-market pricing pinned until the official result posts.[4][6]

For traders, the main catalyst is the UFC’s post-fight declaration, not any external polling movement. The relevant watchpoints are whether the bout starts, whether it reaches the judges, and whether the UFC records a normal result versus a no contest or cancellation, because the settlement rules treat those outcomes very differently. In practice, the market should move only once the official result is announced or the bout is definitively scrubbed beyond the July 4 backstop.[4][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.