UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The fight between Shane Collins and Otari Tanzilovi is scheduled for UFC Fight Night on the prelims, with official UFC result reporting set to decide the market. The current 0% YES crowd price implies the market is effectively treating an Otari Tanzilovi win as the least likely of the two direct outcomes, but the bout has already been priced by sportsbooks with Collins installed as the favourite at -225 and Tanzilovi at +185.[1]

That setup fits the usual pattern for UFC markets when an unbeaten prospect meets a fighter with a single loss: the favourite often opens with a modest but clear edge, while the underdog retains a live path if the fight is tightly contested or reaches the judges. UFC Stats lists Collins at 7-0 and Tanzilovi at 10-1, which helps explain why pre-fight sentiment has leaned towards Collins rather than a Tanzilovi upset.[5] In comparable fight markets, the biggest swing usually comes late, once the weigh-in is complete and any short-notice injury or corner change is confirmed.[2][9]

The main catalyst to watch is the official UFC result once the bout is contested, not outside polling or media chatter. If the fight goes ahead as scheduled, traders will be focused on whether Collins’ favourite status holds up after weigh-ins and the ceremonial face-off, both of which were already documented ahead of the card.[6][9] If the bout is delayed, the market rules indicate the outcome can remain open until the rescheduled fight is completed, while a draw or no contest would push resolution to 50-50 rather than either fighter.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.