Market statistics
- Total volume
- $376K
- 24h volume
- $375K
- Liquidity
- $2.4M
- Open interest
- $179K
Available prediction outcomes (39)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between The Bandits and mCon esports in the Road Of Legends Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 2 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "The Bandits" if The Bandits win the match against mCon esports. This market will resolve to "mCon esports" if mCon esports win the match against The Bandits. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determin
Wikipedia Context
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Lalo Bandai
Lalo Bandai is a village in Koza Bandai union council, Neikpekhai tehsil, in the Swat District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. It is located 14 kilometres north of Mingora and southwest of Matta. The village is inhabited by people from the Yousfzai tribe.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/road_of_legends. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Which political events have the biggest volume?
- US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
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