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MLB: ERA Leader

"MLB: ERA Leader" — live political-market odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

1% YES 99% NO Volume: $1.7M Liquidity: $37K Closes: 28 Sept 2026
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MLB: ERA Leader

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Trump Prediction Pick
polygram.ink
 1% 99% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open on Trump Prediction →
Polymarket
polymarket.com
 1% 99% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open on Trump Prediction →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open on Trump Prediction →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open on Trump Prediction →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open on Trump Prediction →

Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Trump Prediction.

Active sub-markets

Tarik Skubal1% YES99% NO
Cristopher Sánchez16% YES84% NO
Nick Pivetta3% YES97% NO
Matthew Boyd1% YES99% NO
Logan Webb1% YES99% NO
Joe Ryan0% YES100% NO

Market context

The MLB: ERA Leader prediction market currently prices this outcome at 1% YES. This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this …

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book signals 1% probability for "MLB: ERA Leader".

YES 1% NO 99%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.7M.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for MLB: ERA Leader plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?
Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Sarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets WriterandJames WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market Analyst

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