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MLB Home Run Derby 2026: Winner

How the prediction markets are pricing "MLB Home Run Derby 2026: Winner" right now — live Polymarket order book quote, plus platform comparison.

Player D 50% Player E 50% Player F 50% Other 50% Volume: $168K Liquidity: $432K Closes: 13 Jul 2026
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MLB Home Run Derby 2026: Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 50% 50% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 50% 50% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Player D50%
Player E50%
Player F50%
Other50%
Junior Caminero23%
Kyle Schwarber23%
Munetaka Murakami15%
Jac Caglianone12%
Jordan Walker12%
Ben Rice10%
Bryce Harper9%
Willson Contreras5%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 50% probability to mlb home run derby 2026: winner. This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby, scheduled for July 13, 2026, 5 PM ET. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 MLB Home R…

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for MLB Home Run Derby 2026: Winner plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
How fast do political markets react to news?
High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
Which political events have the biggest volume?
US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
Sarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets WriterandJames WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market Analyst

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