Granby: Murphy Cassone vs Tristan Schoolkate

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns a men’s singles tennis match at the Granby tournament between Murphy Cassone and Tristan Schoolkate, originally set for 13 July 2026. With the crowd-implied probability at 100% YES for Cassone advancing, the market treats his victory as virtually certain, despite the match not yet being played or confirmed as completed.

Historically, prediction markets on tennis matches that reach 100% implied probability before play typically resolve correctly unless an external disruption occurs, such as injury, weather, or administrative cancellation. Comparable cases from ATP and Challenger events show that when odds lock at maximum confidence, the outcome hinges almost entirely on whether the match is played; if it is, the favoured player almost always wins, while cancellations trigger the 50–50 settlement clause.

Traders should monitor the Granby tournament’s official schedule for any delay notices, player injury reports, or weather advisories that could postpone or cancel the contest beyond the seven-day window. The ATP Challenger Tour’s daily updates and the Granby tournament’s social media channels are the primary sources for real-time status changes. The key catalyst is whether the match begins and completes; if it does, Cassone’s advancement is the expected resolution, but any cancellation or delay beyond seven days without a winner will reset the market to an even split.

Methodology

This page tracks Granby: Murphy Cassone vs Tristan Schoolkate across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.