Highest temperature in Beijing on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. July represents the height of Beijing's summer season, when daily highs typically range between 29°C and 33°C, though extreme heat events can push temperatures above 35°C. The settlement window closes at midday on the resolution date, capturing the full diurnal cycle before final determination.

Historical records show Beijing experiences significant year-to-year variation in peak summer temperatures. The city recorded 41.1°C in June 2020 during an exceptional heatwave, whilst more typical July maxima cluster around 31–32°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently assign negligible likelihood to extreme heat scenarios for this specific date, though this reflects baseline uncertainty rather than any particular meteorological forecast. Long-range climate models remain unreliable beyond two weeks, limiting predictive precision for events eighteen months distant.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal climate patterns and any emerging data on 2026 summer conditions as the resolution date approaches. China Meteorological Administration forecasts, typically issued monthly and seasonally, will provide the most relevant guidance on expected temperature ranges for July 2026. Real-time weather forecasts become actionable only in the final week before 25 July, at which point standard meteorological models gain sufficient accuracy to inform position adjustments. The airport station's historical data consistency ensures reliable settlement once the date passes.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 25? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.