Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's weather in mid-June typically sits within the warm-to-hot range as the city transitions into summer. Historical records from the Capital International Airport station show June temperatures frequently reaching 30–35°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered or treating this as a straightforward meteorological forecast rather than a binary outcome.

June temperatures in Beijing are shaped by the East Asian summer monsoon system, which typically intensifies through the month. The China Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlooks and real-time weather models from services like Weather Underground will be the primary data sources as the settlement date approaches. Traders should monitor whether anomalous heat patterns develop in early June—unusual warming in the preceding weeks often signals sustained high temperatures through mid-month. The specific resolution mechanism depends on the temperature ranges available in the market's settlement options; without those brackets specified, the current 0% reading likely reflects ambiguity rather than confidence in any particular outcome.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.