Highest temperature in Busan on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport in Busan on 15 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are not currently positioning for extreme heat on that specific date.

Busan's August temperatures show consistent patterns across decades. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicates that daily highs in mid-August typically range between 28–32°C, with extreme readings above 35°C occurring in roughly 15–20% of years during this period. The city's coastal location moderates temperatures compared to inland regions; the 2018 heat wave that pushed Seoul above 39°C saw Busan peak at 34.6°C. August 2023 recorded a high of 33.1°C on the 15th specifically. These precedents establish that whilst temperatures above 33°C are plausible, readings exceeding 35°C remain uncommon for this date and location.

Traders should monitor seasonal climate forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in July 2026, which typically project August temperature anomalies three to four weeks ahead. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing in the preceding months would influence Pacific circulation patterns affecting Korean peninsula weather. Real-time atmospheric conditions in early August—particularly the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the region—will determine whether Busan experiences typical mid-summer conditions or anomalous heat. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 15 August, allowing only morning observations to influence final resolution.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Busan on August 15? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.