Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu faces its peak summer heat on 11 July 2026, with the market assessing whether the highest temperature at Shuangliu International Airport will breach a specific threshold. The current 0% YES probability suggests the crowd expects conditions to remain well below the resolution trigger, despite July being the region’s hottest month.

Historical data confirms July in Chengdu routinely sees daytime highs between 30–35°C, occasionally reaching 38°C during intense heatwaves, with average highs around 31°C [2][4][8]. Comparable cases from recent years show temperatures frequently exceeding 32°C in mid-July, making a sub-threshold outcome plausible only if cloud cover or rain suppresses heating [4][6]. The 0% implied probability appears misaligned with typical climatic patterns unless the resolution threshold is set unusually high, such as above 38°C.

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Shuangliu station, as settlement relies exclusively on its recorded daily maximum [10]. Key catalysts include sudden monsoon activity or persistent cloud cover, which could cap temperatures below 30°C, and any official heat advisories from Sichuan meteorological services. Recent climate models indicate a 20-day rainy window in July, which may suppress peak temperatures if precipitation intensifies before 11 July [4]. Watch for deviations from the typical 31°C average, as even minor shifts could alter the outcome significantly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.