Highest temperature in London on May 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 27 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Resolution will depend on historical weather data from Weather Underground, with the settlement window closing at midday on that date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the actual temperature to fall outside all available range options, or that the market structure itself contains a constraint preventing resolution into any offered bracket.

London's May temperatures typically range between 12°C and 20°C, though the city has recorded highs of 27°C in late May during warmer years. The 1976 heatwave and more recent warm springs (2011, 2018) provide reference points for understanding the upper bounds of plausible May heat. Historical data from the Met Office shows that temperatures exceeding 25°C in May occur roughly once per decade in London, making extreme heat in this month relatively uncommon but not unprecedented.

Traders should monitor the European weather pattern forecasts released in the weeks preceding 27 May 2026, particularly high-pressure systems that could drive continental air masses northward into the UK. The UK Met Office issues extended outlooks approximately two weeks in advance. Any significant deviation from typical spring conditions—such as an early summer anticyclone—would shift expectations. The current zero probability may reflect either missing or poorly calibrated temperature brackets in the market's resolution options, warranting verification of the available ranges before trading.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in London on May 27? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.