Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Los Angeles International Airport weather station will record its highest temperature on 26 May 2026, with the market settling to whichever temperature band contains that peak reading in Fahrenheit. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, giving traders a narrow window to assess the final observation once Wunderground's historical data is published and verified.

Los Angeles typically experiences late-spring temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s Fahrenheit during late May, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-80s. Historical data from the airport station shows May 26 temperatures have ranged considerably year to year; the station's long-term records indicate variability of roughly 15–20 degrees Fahrenheit between cooler and warmer occurrences on this calendar date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution criteria clarification or have not yet engaged with this particular market, which is common for weather markets with distant settlement dates.

The primary catalyst for movement will be seasonal weather forecasting models as May 2026 approaches. Current atmospheric patterns and climate oscillations—including potential La Niña or El Niño conditions—will influence forecast confidence roughly two to three months before the event. The National Weather Service and Weather Underground's own extended forecasts typically gain reliability within 10–14 days of the target date, meaning meaningful price discovery should accelerate in mid-May 2026. Traders should monitor whether any unusual atmospheric setup (ridge of high pressure, marine layer disruption) emerges in the weeks preceding the settlement window.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.