Highest temperature in NYC on August 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

A wet, unsettled morning at LaGuardia has already capped the day’s temperature well below the sort of heat that usually shifts a late-August reading into the upper 80s. NOAA’s station feed showed only the low 70s through the morning, with showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, which fits the market’s 0% implied chance of a high enough reading to move beyond the lowest temperature bands.

That kind of pricing mirrors how weather markets typically behave when the strongest lift comes from a one-day burst of heat and the synoptic set-up instead points the other way. Late-August New York climatology still allows for 80s, but a rainy, cloudy, east-wind pattern suppresses the day’s ceiling rather than producing a late spike. Comparable cases tend to settle in the lower bands when the station spends the peak heating hours under cloud and precipitation.

The main catalyst to watch is the next NOAA update at LaGuardia, because this market resolves from the highest observed “Temp” value on 23 August, not from the afternoon forecast. For traders, the relevant dependency is whether thunderstorms clear early enough for any rebound; if not, the prevailing setup leaves the market leaning on the morning’s cool, damp start rather than on any scheduled political or campaign-driven event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on August 23? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.