Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market assesses the peak Fahrenheit reading at LaGuardia Airport for 15 July 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome above the lowest range. This 0% YES stance implies traders view a record-breaking heatwave as virtually impossible for this specific date, treating the settlement as a near-certain event within the lower temperature bands.

Historical July data for New York City shows average highs typically cluster between 84°F and 87°F, with extreme outliers rarely surpassing 95°F. The current pricing aligns with the median of the last decade, where days exceeding 90°F occur roughly 15% of the time in mid-July. The market’s dismissal of higher ranges suggests participants are betting on a standard summer day rather than an anomalous heat spike, consistent with National Weather Service records for LaGuardia which show July 15s frequently landing in the 80s rather than the 90s[2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s seven-day forecast issued daily at 12:00 UTC, as sudden shifts in the jet stream or Atlantic moisture could alter the probability distribution before the 2026-07-15 settlement. While no political debates or campaign disclosures directly influence weather, any sudden changes in the forecast from weather.gov or Wunderground updates will be the primary catalyst for price movement[1]. The market leans on the immediate meteorological forecast rather than long-term climate models, meaning a single day of revised data could swing the implied probability from 0% to significant levels if a heat dome forms.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on July 15? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.