Highest temperature in Paris on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 26 May 2026, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Weather Underground. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine forecast.

Paris experiences highly variable spring weather in late May. Historical data from the past two decades shows maximum temperatures on 26 May ranging from 16°C to 28°C, with a median around 21–23°C. The city's climate patterns are shaped by Atlantic frontal systems and occasional warm continental air masses pushing north from the Mediterranean. Recent May weather in Paris has trended slightly warmer than the 30-year normal, though individual day variation remains substantial. Le Bourget Airport, situated north of central Paris, typically records temperatures 1–2°C cooler than the city centre due to its location and exposure.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the absence of long-range weather forecasting precision beyond two weeks. Current meteorological models cannot reliably predict specific daily maxima six months ahead. Traders should monitor seasonal climate outlooks from Météo-France or the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as May 2026 approaches, though these will only become meaningful in April. The market's current zero probability reflects rational uncertainty rather than confidence in any particular temperature range, making it dependent on traders gradually building positions as the settlement date nears and actual forecasts become available.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Paris on May 26? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.