Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market assesses the peak heat expected at San Francisco International Airport on 14 July 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome other than the specific ranges listed. This 0% YES figure for the binary framing suggests traders are overwhelmingly confident the temperature will fall within the defined Fahrenheit bands, specifically leaning toward the 80–81°F range which commands a 40% probability, followed by 78–79°F at 30% [1].

Historical July highs in San Francisco typically remain moderate due to coastal marine influence, yet recent years have seen occasional spikes above 80°F during inland heat domes. The current pricing aligns with comparable mid-summer days where temperatures breach 78°F but rarely exceed 82°F, reflecting the city’s usual thermal ceiling unless a significant ridge of high pressure develops over the region.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s forecast for the Central Valley, as heat advisories there often precede temperature surges in the Bay Area. No scheduled political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence this weather event, but the market is currently leaning on the absence of a confirmed heat dome in early July models. Recent BBC Weather data for the airport shows current conditions at 59°F with rising pressure, indicating stable atmospheric patterns that may persist unless a sudden shift occurs [2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.