Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 15 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. Seoul's August climate is characterised by intense heat and humidity during the East Asian summer monsoon season, with temperatures regularly exceeding 30°C. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or uncertainty about the specific temperature bands available for resolution.

Historical August temperatures at Incheon show consistent patterns. Between 2015 and 2024, daily highs in mid-August averaged 29–31°C, with extremes ranging from 24°C during anomalously cool years to 34°C during heat waves. The 2018 heat wave saw multiple days above 33°C, whilst cooler years like 2020 produced readings closer to 27–28°C. These precedents establish that temperatures in the 30–32°C range occur in roughly 60% of August 15ths, making moderate heat the baseline expectation rather than exceptional conditions.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts released in late July and early August 2026, which will clarify whether typical monsoon patterns or anomalous systems dominate that week. The Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlooks, published quarterly, will provide context on whether 2026's August is tracking toward above-average or below-average temperatures. Pacific typhoon activity in early August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems from the north would elevate readings. Current 0% pricing may reflect limited liquidity or resolution-source scepticism rather than genuine confidence in extreme outcomes.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.