Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is set to experience its peak summer heat on 11 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station serving as the official benchmark for the highest daily temperature. The market currently assigns a 0% probability to any specific outcome, reflecting extreme uncertainty or a lack of defined ranges in the trading interface, despite the region’s known tendency for intense heatwaves during early July.

Historical data frames this event as a high-stakes thermal outlier rather than a routine summer day. In early July 2024, Seoul recorded a record-breaking 37.8°C, the highest temperature ever observed in the capital during that period [1]. Long-term averages for July typically see daytime maxima around 28°C, but the combination of high humidity and monsoon clearance often pushes felt temperatures well above 34°C [3][4]. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either awaiting a specific forecast update or that the market’s resolution ranges have not yet been calibrated to account for such extreme historical precedents.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts released on the morning of 11 July, which provide three-hour and twelve-hour temperature projections [9]. The primary catalyst is the real-time weather data from Wunderground, which will confirm the peak temperature at Incheon Airport once the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC [1]. No political debates or campaign disclosures influence this weather event; the market leans entirely on the atmospheric conditions expected as the monsoon season (Jangma) transitions toward its end, a period known for concentrated heavy rainfall followed by rapid temperature spikes [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.