Highest temperature in Seoul on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to identify the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 14 July 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's historical data for that specific station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect no outcome within the lowest temperature bracket, though the full range of possible highs remains unspecified in the market description.

Seoul's July climate is characterised by monsoon season conditions and peak summer heat. Historical data from Incheon Airport shows July daily highs typically range between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. The 2018 Korean heat wave saw temperatures exceed 39°C across the country, though such extremes remain statistical outliers. Comparing July 2026 to recent years' patterns—including the warming trend observed through the 2020s—provides the baseline for assessing probability distributions across temperature brackets.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which typically issues extended outlooks 10–14 days ahead. North Pacific high-pressure systems and tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific substantially influence Korean summer temperatures; any tropical systems approaching the peninsula in mid-July could suppress daytime highs through cloud cover and precipitation. Real-time forecast updates from Weather Underground itself will become the operative reference point as settlement approaches, with the final recorded high locked in at the 12:00 UTC cutoff on 14 July.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on July 14? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.