Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in late July, with the city's meteorological records showing consistent temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius during this period. The settlement relies on data from Incheon International Airport Station, which serves as the official observation point for the region. Historical July averages for the airport station typically range between 24–29°C, though daily highs frequently exceed 30°C during heat waves that sweep across the Korean peninsula in midsummer.

The 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty around which specific temperature band will record the daily maximum on 28 July 2026, rather than doubt about whether measurable heat will occur. Seoul's summer weather patterns depend heavily on the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system and potential typhoon activity in late July. Recent meteorological data from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicates that late-July conditions typically favour temperatures between 28–32°C, with occasional spikes above 33°C during particularly intense heat events. Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released in early July 2026 and any tropical cyclone developments in the Western Pacific that could alter atmospheric conditions over the Korean peninsula in the days preceding settlement.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.