Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 17 June 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, the official meteorological reference point for the region. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle up to the measurement cutoff. Historical data from Wunderground will determine which temperature band the day falls into, with resolution dependent on that source's records for the specific station.

Mid-June in Seoul typically falls within the early monsoon season, with average daily highs around 26–28°C, though variability is considerable. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the market's mechanics or expect the settlement criteria to exclude certain outcomes. Comparable June conditions from prior years show Seoul occasionally reaching 30°C or above during heat waves, whilst cooler, wetter patterns can suppress temperatures into the low-to-mid 20s. The narrow settlement window and reliance on a single airport station reading mean local weather patterns on that specific day will dominate outcomes rather than seasonal trends.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts as June 2026 approaches, particularly tracking whether high-pressure systems or monsoon troughs are positioned over the Korean peninsula. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes extended outlooks that typically become more reliable two to three weeks before the target date. Any significant heat wave or cold-front activity affecting East Asia in early June could shift expectations materially, though current forecasting skill at the six-month horizon remains limited.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.