Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's weather on 27 May 2026 will be measured against historical temperature records from Bao'an International Airport, the city's primary meteorological station. Late May falls within Shenzhen's late spring period, when subtropical conditions begin intensifying ahead of the summer monsoon season. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal temperature cycle for that date.

Historical data from Bao'an station shows May temperatures typically range between 28–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either heavily discounting extreme heat scenarios or awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts. Comparable May dates from prior years provide the baseline: the station recorded 34.8°C on 27 May 2019 and 33.2°C on 27 May 2022, indicating that mid-30s outcomes are routine rather than exceptional for this calendar date.

The key variable traders should monitor is the position of the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system in late May 2026. Wunderground's historical archive will serve as the sole resolution source, making real-time forecast models from China Meteorological Administration or other regional services useful for positioning. Any significant atmospheric patterns—tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea or anomalous ridge positioning—could shift outcomes materially. Current market pricing reflects uncertainty about whether May 2026 will track closer to cooler or warmer historical precedent.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 27? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.