Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant real-world event is the **daytime high temperature** recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport, with the market settling on the range containing the **highest reading** for 27 July. Early pricing at 0% YES suggests traders are treating the upside as very unlikely, which is consistent with a market that needs an exact daily maximum at a specific station rather than a broader Tokyo-wide temperature measure.

Recent heat history matters here. Japan has shown that extreme highs are possible, with the country logging new national records above 41°C in a single day in 2025, but those events were exceptional rather than routine[2]. For Tokyo specifically, the more relevant analogue is whether the day produces a sustained, locally recorded peak at Haneda; that makes this less about headline national heat and more about whether the airport station’s official observations capture a sharp midday spike, which is the reading this market will use[1].

The main catalyst is the **forecast trend into the afternoon local time window**, especially the combination of sunshine, humidity, and any sea-breeze moderation around Tokyo Bay. Traders should watch the Wunderground history page for Haneda as the official settlement source, because the market depends on the station’s highest observed temperature rather than forecasts or city averages[1]. Any late update in the local forecast from a major weather outlet would matter mainly if it shifts expectations for cloud cover or rain during the day, since that would directly affect the chance of a higher terminal reading.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.