Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport on 27 July 2026, with settlement based on historical weather data from Weather Underground. The 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty about which temperature band will be observed on that specific date, roughly eighteen months ahead.

Warsaw's July temperatures show consistent patterns across decades of meteorological records. The city's average high in July ranges between 23–24°C, whilst extreme highs during summer heat waves have reached 30°C or above. The historical record for July in Warsaw stands at 37.8°C, set in 1994. Most July days fall within a 20–28°C range, making mid-range outcomes substantially more probable than either unusually cool or exceptionally hot scenarios. Comparable European capitals experience similar seasonal variation; Prague and Budapest record July highs averaging 24–25°C with occasional peaks exceeding 35°C during anomalous weather systems.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasting models as the settlement date approaches, though their reliability diminishes beyond two weeks. The primary catalyst will be the arrival of any Atlantic weather systems or high-pressure zones over Central Europe in late July 2026. Climate data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) becomes actionable only in the final fortnight before resolution. No scheduled events or policy announcements directly influence local temperature outcomes; the market depends entirely on meteorological conditions and the accuracy of the Weather Underground historical database for the Warsaw Chopin Airport station on that date.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.