Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport is recording a current temperature of 15°C under south-south-westerly winds, setting the immediate baseline for the day’s peak. The market currently assigns a 0% probability to any outcome above the frontrunner of 12°C, reflecting a consensus that mid-July conditions in the capital will remain firmly cool. This tight pricing aligns with the typical climatic behaviour for Wellington in late July, where maximum temperatures rarely breach 16°C due to persistent maritime influence and frequent cloud cover.

Historical data from comparable mid-winter periods shows that temperatures exceeding 12°C are uncommon but not impossible, usually occurring only during brief spells of northerly flow. However, the current 0% implied probability suggests traders view a significant warm spike as statistically negligible given the prevailing south-westerly pattern. In previous years, similar wind directions have consistently capped daily highs near 10–13°C, reinforcing the market’s confidence in the 12°C ceiling.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, as the settlement relies exclusively on the highest recorded temperature for 21 July 2026. While no scheduled political debates or campaign disclosures directly influence weather, sudden shifts in wind direction or cloud cover could alter the peak. The market leans heavily on the current meteorological trajectory, with no external catalysts expected to disrupt the cool trend before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.