Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on 13 July 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. This market resolves based on the absolute daily minimum temperature published in the Observatory's Daily Extract climate data, with settlement occurring after the official figure is finalised and released.

Hong Kong's July temperatures are constrained by the city's subtropical monsoon climate. Historical data from the Observatory shows July daily minima typically range between 24°C and 27°C, with absolute lows rarely falling below 23°C even during the peak summer season. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside whichever range option is offered—most likely a lower bracket—reflecting the statistical improbability of unusually cool conditions during Hong Kong's warmest month. Comparable July records from recent decades show consistent patterns, with the Observatory's 30-year climate normals indicating mean daily minima around 25.5°C.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and broader meteorological patterns in the weeks preceding 13 July 2026. Tropical cyclone activity, which occasionally brings cooler air masses to the region, represents the primary catalyst for temperatures deviating significantly below seasonal norms. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and extended forecasts on its official website, which will provide updated context as the date approaches. The settlement window closes at midday on 13 July, allowing time for the Observatory to process and publish the daily minimum reading before final resolution.

Methodology

This page tracks Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.