Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's weather on 28 July 2026 will be measured against historical temperature records for that date and location. July is consistently the hottest month in Beijing's annual cycle, with average daily highs around 29–31°C. The settlement will depend on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station throughout that calendar day, converted to Celsius and matched against the market's predefined ranges.

Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows that Beijing's July temperatures have shifted upward over the past two decades. The city recorded 41.9°C on 20 July 2010 and 40.6°C on 16 July 2019. However, extreme heat events above 40°C in July occur irregularly; most years see peak temperatures between 33–38°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are not currently pricing in an exceptionally high reading, reflecting baseline expectations for a warm but not record-breaking summer day.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released by the China Meteorological Administration in early July 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks for major cities. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months will influence whether atmospheric patterns favour heat accumulation across northern China. Real-time forecasts from Wunderground itself will become increasingly precise in the week before settlement, allowing traders to adjust positions based on incoming pressure systems and humidity levels that determine whether temperatures climb into the upper 30s or potentially breach 40°C.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.