Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 2?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's temperature on 2 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and settled against historical daily maximum readings. The settlement window closes at midday on that date, with resolution dependent on the Observatory's publication of the "Absolute Daily Max" figure in its Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place in Celsius.

June in Hong Kong typically falls within the pre-monsoon season, with daily maxima ranging between 29°C and 33°C based on thirty-year climate normals. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting the actual date to approach or treating this as a placeholder market pending temperature range brackets. Historical June data from the Observatory shows considerable year-to-year variation; the highest June temperatures on record exceed 35°C, whilst cooler days can dip below 28°C depending on weather systems and atmospheric conditions in the preceding weeks.

The critical dependency for trading activity is the publication of temperature ranges by the market operator, which will define the discrete outcomes available for settlement. Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during late May, as these systems significantly influence June temperatures. The market cannot resolve until the Observatory publishes finalised data, typically within days of the measurement date, creating a lag between the actual weather event and settlement confirmation.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 2? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.