Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026?

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Market context

Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's president since August 2023, faces removal or resignation before the end of 2026. The 43% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about his political durability within Iran's factionalised system, where the Supreme Leader retains ultimate authority and the presidency remains subordinate to clerical power structures. Pezeshkian's tenure has already weathered significant pressure, including tensions with hardline factions over nuclear negotiations and domestic economic policy, yet he remains in post with no imminent formal challenge announced.

Historical precedent offers mixed signals. Mohammad Khatami served two full terms (1997–2005) despite persistent hardliner opposition, whilst Mahmoud Ahmadinejad completed his second term before constitutional term limits forced his exit. Conversely, earlier presidents faced earlier removal: Abolhassan Banisadr was impeached in 1981 after less than two years. The median tenure for post-1979 Iranian presidents is approximately six years, suggesting Pezeshkian's current trajectory places him near the midpoint of typical service. However, Iran's 2024 parliamentary elections shifted the Majlis toward conservative control, potentially constraining his legislative agenda and creating friction points for removal efforts.

Traders should monitor parliamentary confidence votes, which require no external trigger and can be initiated by hardline blocs if Pezeshkian's economic policies falter further or if regional escalation (particularly regarding Israel or nuclear diplomacy) triggers backlash from Supreme Leader Khamenei's allies. The market's 43% probability suggests traders view removal as plausible but not probable—pricing in real institutional risk whilst acknowledging his current political survival.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

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