Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 21 July 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. July represents the peak of Beijing's summer season, when daily highs routinely exceed 30°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders are forecasting conditions during what will be early morning in Beijing.

Historical records show July temperatures in Beijing cluster between 26°C and 34°C, with occasional extremes reaching 35°C or above during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence that the market's temperature bins do not capture the actual high, or minimal trading activity. Comparable July days at the same station over the past decade provide the baseline: most years see highs in the 29–32°C range, though the 2010 heat wave pushed readings to 40°C. Understanding whether traders expect typical summer conditions or an anomalous event is essential to interpreting the current odds.

The primary catalyst is the actual weather pattern developing across northern China in mid-July 2026. Real-time meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international weather models will become increasingly reliable in the week preceding the settlement date. Traders should monitor whether a high-pressure system or heat dome is forecast to dominate the region, as such patterns typically drive temperatures toward the upper end of the historical range. Wunderground's historical data feed will be the definitive source once the day concludes.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.