Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 25 July 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will capture the day's maximum reading.

Chengdu's July climate presents a consistent baseline for comparison. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows July averages in the city typically peak between 29–33°C, with extreme readings occasionally exceeding 37°C during heat waves. The 2013 heat wave pushed temperatures to 40.2°C in Chengdu, whilst more recent summers have remained within the 35–38°C range. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather database, which aggregates readings from the airport station throughout the day, capturing the single highest temperature recorded.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns emerging in June 2026 and any forecasts issued by China's National Meteorological Centre in the weeks preceding the market deadline. La Niña or El Niño conditions developing in the Pacific could influence summer monsoon intensity and regional temperature anomalies. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 July, though Wunderground typically updates historical records within 24–48 hours of the observation date. Early-season heat waves or unusual atmospheric blocking patterns would shift expectations toward higher temperature brackets, whilst normal monsoon activity would favour mid-range outcomes aligned with historical norms.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.