Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas recorded its peak heat for 16 July 2026 at 88–89°F at the Love Field Station, aligning with the market’s leading outcome of 88–89°F at 100% probability[1]. This narrow band reflects typical midsummer conditions for the region, where July highs frequently cluster between 85°F and 92°F, making lower ranges like 77°F or below statistically improbable and currently priced at 0%[1].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily archive for the official resolution, as it is the designated source for the highest temperature recorded at KDAL on that date[1]. No political catalysts, debates, or campaign disclosures influence this weather market, though the settlement window closing on 2026-07-16T12:00:00Z means the outcome is already fixed and awaiting confirmation[1]. The market leans entirely on historical climate patterns rather than real-time events, with the 88–89°F range representing the consensus view based on past July data in Dallas.

Given the 0% crowd-implied probability for any outcome outside 88–89°F, the market treats alternative temperature ranges as effectively impossible[1]. This extreme confidence suggests traders see no meaningful uncertainty in the forecast, a stance consistent with Dallas’s reliable summer heat profile. The resolution will be final once Wunderground publishes the day’s official high, closing the window for further trading adjustments.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.