Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in degrees Celsius on 28 July 2026, with settlement depending on the publication of that day's absolute daily maximum reading. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any outcome, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or uncertainty about which temperature band will materialise on that specific date.

Hong Kong's July temperatures are among the year's most extreme. Historical data from the Observatory shows July daily maxima typically range between 32°C and 35°C, with occasional readings exceeding 36°C during heat waves. The city's subtropical climate, combined with urban heat island effects, produces relatively consistent patterns across years, though individual days can vary significantly depending on monsoon activity and pressure systems. Comparable July dates from recent decades provide the most reliable baseline for assessing probability distributions across temperature bands.

Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts released in the week preceding 28 July, particularly from the Hong Kong Observatory's extended outlook and regional weather models tracking the East Asian summer monsoon. The timing of any tropical cyclone activity or high-pressure systems over southern China will be critical; such systems can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover or intensify heat through subsidence. Settlement cannot occur until the Observatory publishes its Daily Extract data for that date, which typically occurs within days of the observation period. The current zero probability reflects the market's nascent stage rather than any genuine forecast consensus.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

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